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Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary Forecast summary ( % unless otherwise indicated) 2012 a 2013 b 2014 b 2015 b 2016 b 2017 b Real GDP growth -0.9 c 9.5 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.4 Gross agricultural production growth -19.3 c 18.0 4.0 5.0 4.5 5.0 Gross fixed investment growth -5.6 c 14.3 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Unemployment r...
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT NEW SCENARIO Risk Briefing's risk scenarios are potential developments that might substantially change the business operating environment over the coming 2 years. We analyse the drivers, provide the context , conclude with recommended action. The following scenario has been added at the latest Economic Profile. MACROECONOMIC RISK Inflation rises ...
RISK RATINGS Current Current Previous Previous Rating Score Rating Score Overall assessment C 55 C 57 Macroeconomic risk C 50 C 60 Note: E=most risky; 100=most risky. The risk ratings model is run once a quarter. Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY Macroeconomic risk is fuelled by structural vulnerabilities. Black-Industry activities...
Outlook for 2013-17 The interim president, Federico Franco of the Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA), will be unable to fulfil his pledges of land , energy reform, as other parties' support for his agenda fades ahead of the April 2013 election. Horacio Cartes of the opposition Partido Colorado (PC) remains the front-runner for the April 2013 presidential election, unless ...
Event Prices fell by 0.2 % in October. Base effects meant that there was an uptick in the 1two-month inflation figure, from 2.8 % in September to 3.4 % in October, but this is still well within the target range of 2 percentage points above or below 5 %. Analysis At 3.4 % in October, inflation is substantially below the year-earlier level of 6.2 %. This is thanks entirely to goods price disinflati...
Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary Forecast summary ( % unless otherwise indicated) 2012 a 2013 b 2014 b 2015 b 2016 b 2017 b Real GDP growth -2.1 7.4 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.3 Gross agricultural production growth -15.0 18.0 4.0 5.0 4.5 5.0 Gross fixed investment growth -8.5 10.4 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Unemployment rate (av) ...
Event The headline rate of inflation slowed to 1.3 % year on year in September, from 1.4 % in August. This was the lowest rate recorded since February 2010 . Analysis The headline rate of inflation has remained below 2 % on annual basis since April 2012 , , averaged 1.8 % in the 1st 9 months of the year. 1 factor behind recent subdued price trends has been the suspension of the fue...
Event The Banco Central del Paraguay's monetary policy committee has announced that the benchmark 1four-day monetary policy rate is to remain on hold at 5.5 %. Analysis The Central Bank has now kept rates on hold for 2 months, after a monetary easing cycle that began in November 2011 , that has seen rates fall by a total of...
RISK RATINGS Current Current Previous Previous Rating Score Rating Score Overall assessment C 57 C 57 Security risk B 39 B 39 Political stability risk C 55 C 55 Government effectiveness risk D 68 D 68 Legal & regulatory risk D 62 D 62 Macroeconomic risk C 60 C 60 Foreign trade & payments risk ...
region BRIEFING FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT These forecasts were prepared on 2012-08-29 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PaG:US$ (av) 4,176 4,450 4,587 4,696 4,839 Nominal appreciation of PaG ( %) 13.4 -6.1 -3.0 -2.3 -3.0 Real appreciation of PaG ( %) 19.6 -4.2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.7 PaG:US$ (end period) 4,492 4,576 4,626...
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